“Shit - I shouldn't have done this”

may be what the Korean leadership team of Samsung may be thinking. My take would be, they are more likely thinking: “I shouldn't have done it this way......”

This week has been full of news  from the battle in the US between Apple and Samsung. Lot’s of well meaning Users, Industry Analyst and Commentators have been out there with thoughts and analysis, all striking me to be very immature and ill founded in facts. I don’t claim to know how this will end, but want to make sure we all consider, what is likely to happen next.

This whole debacle reminds me of several events in World history worth taking lessons from. Like when Japan in the late 1930’s early 1940’s realized they would have to deal with US eventually, as they were expanding the Empire across the Pacific. The Japanese Military managed to convince the senior leadership that the best way forward, would be a surprise attack on Pearl Harbor, to take out the whole Pacific Fleet. The logic was primitive and proved wrong for many different reasons, and they eventually lost everything!

The strategy simply was wrong - it never could work.

In the meantime: Samsung - though obviously confused by the US legal system,  and in a courtroom next door to Apple’s Headquarters in Silicon Valley - clearly have not found their form. But history have taught us, the South Korean company is not likely to give up, and some of the things they may do in short order are:

• Appeal the verdict in US: while showing a weak defence in first round in US - they will return with better lawyers and a better defense, and likely win an appeal or force Apple to settle the case
• Shift of short term Geographical focus: The bulk of the market for Smart Phones is outside US (almost 80%) and Samsung may focus outside US for a while as Smartphone sales go - and take advantage of great designs and good prices and continue to gain global share
• Focus on Windows Phone market: Samsung will launch their Windows 8 phone next week, before most players and definitely a week before Nokia. I looked at the Phones and they look very similar to all the Android based models they are making a killing with in the Global markets right now. They will likely be very successful in this market as well, and ride the wave of the Windows phone opportunity.....
• Concentrate on the Tablet opportunity. They won this part of the lawsuit from Apple and will likely pull all stops here. Their 10” tablet as well as 7” already hold strong positions in various markets around the world. They now have a courts approval to go ahead and push for volumes in the US marketplace, competing with the iPad, the new Google Nexus 7 and this week’s launch of new tablets from Amazon - as well as hundreds others, already selling Android based tablets around the world

In the meantime - The “Big Guy” will get into the game. Through the acquisition of Motorola, Google now posses 70 years of wireless patents, and own the Android operating system used by everyone... Interesting law suits ahead of us!!

And thousands of users are getting into the discussion in US, saying something along these lines: “If apple is so darn good why not compete instead of acting like a petulant child” or  “they are too expensive for what they deliver”

And every other country that Apple has sued in, they've lost (Germany, UK, Australia, Japan, Korea etc)

And Samsung and others are working on all the other devices in the Consumer Stack - like Cloud connected TVs and Blu-Ray Players as well as hybrids of telephones, tablets, laptops etc all of which are way outside the scope of current legal battle. Samsung and likes, will out-innovate, out-manufacture and out-distribute everyone on electronic devices because they are competing with someone who is dependant on, and insisting on, getting extremely high margins from the market.

Apple will soon feel like the Japanese emperor:

Shit - I shouldn't have done this......